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Affecting policymakers with climate science information

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February 7 2017  ScienceDaily  see full article here

Exposure to climate models’ predictions affects policymakers and climate negotiators less than the informed general public, a paper assesses. But the right presentation format can improve forecasts’ effectiveness

….while the format didn’t affect MBA students, providing policymakers with the richest format, which includes individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range, increases the likelihood of reporting conditional probabilities closer to the scientific information.

Our results…point to the importance of testing behavioral effects targeting the population of interest and suggest a more effective, and relatively easy to implement, format to visually communicate scientific information to policymakers.“…

Valentina Bosetti, Elke Weber, Loïc Berger, David V. Budescu, Ning Liu, Massimo Tavoni. COP21 climate negotiators’ responses to climate model forecasts. Nature Climate Change, 2017; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3208

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