Ecology, Climate Change and Related News

Conservation Science for a Healthy Planet

Arctic sea ice may vanish even if world achieves climate goal – study

Leave a Comment

Ice-free Arctic with 1.5 C?

March 6, 2017 Reuters  Full article here

Arctic sea ice may vanish in summers this century even if governments achieve a core target for limiting global warming set by almost 200 nations in 2015, scientists said on Monday. …Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments set a goal of limiting the rise in average world temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, with an aspiration of just 1.5C (2.7F).

The 2 degrees Celsius target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic,” James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University in Britain wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change after a statistical review of ice projections.

A 2C rise would still mean a 39 percent risk that ice will disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said. Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.And they said they estimated a 73 percent probability that the ice would disappear in summer unless governments make deeper cuts in emissions than their existing plans. They estimated temperatures will rise 3C (5.4F) on current trends….

James A. Screen & Daniel Williamson  Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C? Nature Climate Change (2017) doi:10.1038/nclimate3248  Published online 06 March 2017

View all articles

Comments are closed