Hopes of mild climate change dashed by new research- doubling of CO2 could lead to 6C warmingLeave a Comment
- Planet could heat up far more than hoped as new work shows temperature rises measured over recent decades don’t fully reflect global warming already in the pipeline (in the oceans).
- The new research shows the 4.5C upper limit for climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere) is real and could be as high as 6C.
- The global temperature is likely to be 2.6C to 4.8C higher by the end of the century if emissions are not cut.
Damian Carrington GuardianUK
…The work shows that temperature rises measured over recent decades do not fully reflect the global warming already in the pipeline and that the ultimate heating of the planet could be even worse than feared.
….how much global temperatures rise for a certain level of carbon emissions is called climate sensitivity and is seen as the single most important measure of climate change. Computer models have long indicated a high level of sensitivity, up to 4.5C for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.… the new work, using both models and paleoclimate data from warming periods in the Earth’s past, shows that the historical temperature measurements do not reveal the slow heating of the planet’s oceans that takes place for decades or centuries after CO2 has been added to the atmosphere.
…The new research, published in the journal Science Advances, has ended that. “The worrisome part is that all the models show there is an amplification of the amount of warming in the future,” he said. The situation might be even worse, as Proistosescu’s work shows climate sensitivity could be as high as 6C.
….“The models simulate a warming pattern like today’s, but indicate that strong feedbacks kick in when the Southern Ocean and Eastern Equatorial Pacific eventually warm, leading to higher overall temperatures than would simply be extrapolated from the warming seen to date,” said [co-author] Peter Huybers…“But there is no perfect analogue for the changes that are coming.”