|World’s young face $535 trillion bill for climate.|
|One of the world’s most famous climate scientists has just calculated the financial burden that tomorrow’s young citizens will face to keep the globe at a habitable temperature and contain global warming and climate change – a $535 trillion bill. Climate News Network, United Kingdom.|
Removing CO2 from air (“negative emissions” including nature-based solutions) required to get to 350 ppm CO2 (which is necessary to safeguard our future); World’s young face $535 trillion bill for climate (Hansen et al)Leave a Comment
- Atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to less than 350 parts per million (ppm) from its present level of about 400 ppm
- Reduction of CO2 below 350 ppm will cause temperature to peak and slowly decrease to about +1°C later this century. This goal requires negative CO2 emissions, that is, extracting CO2 from the air, in addition to rapid phase-down of fossil fuel emissions.
- Reforestation and improved agricultural practices could remove 2/3 of atmospheric CO2 required to get to 350 ppm if start 6% CO2 reductions annually by 2021- relatively inexpensive and have added benefits such as improved soil fertility and forest products
- Climate change will force today’s kids to pay for costly carbon removal technologies, study says;
- World’s young face $535 trillion bill for climate.
July 18, 2017 European Geosciences Union See full ScienceDaily article herehttps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170718113736.htm
Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions is not enough to limit global warming to a level that wouldn’t risk young people’s future, according to a new study by scientists who say we need negative emissions. Measures such as reforestation could accomplish much of the needed CO2 removal from the atmosphere, but continued high fossil fuel emissions would demand expensive technological solutions to extract CO2 and prevent dangerous warming….
….”We show that a target of limiting global warming to no more than +2°C relative to pre-industrial levels is not sufficient, as +2°C would be warmer than the Eemian period, when sea level reached +6-9 metres relative to today,” says Hansen. The Eemian ended some 115,000 years ago and was a warm period in the Earth’s history between two glacial ages.
The danger, according to the Earth System Dynamics study, is that a long-term global average temperature of +2°C — or even of +1.5°C, the other temperature limit discussed in the 2015 Paris Agreement — could spur ‘slow’ climate feedbacks. In particular, it could lead to partial melting of the ice sheets, which would result in a significant increase in sea-level rise as happened in the Eemian …
The Hansen-led team says that atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to less than 350 parts per million (ppm) from its present level of about 400 ppm. Global average temperature reached +1.3°C above pre-industrial levels in 2016 and will increase at least a few tenths of a degree more during the next few decades because of the delayed response to past increases in CO2 and other gases. Reduction of CO2 below 350 ppm will cause temperature to peak and slowly decrease to about +1°C later this century. This goal requires negative CO2 emissions, that is, extracting CO2 from the air, in addition to rapid phase-down of fossil fuel emissions.
….The team estimates that, if we start reducing CO2 emissions in 2021 at a rate of 6% a year, we’d need to also extract about 150 gigatonnes of carbon from the atmosphere by 2100. Most of this, about 100 gigatonnes, could come from improved agricultural and forestry practices alone. These measures can be relatively inexpensive and have added benefits such as improved soil fertility and forest products…
….However, if CO2 emissions grow at a rate of 2% a year (between 2000 and 2015 they rose on average 2.6% a year), we’d need to extract well over 1000 gigatonnes of carbon from the atmosphere by 2100. This could only be achieved with a costly technological solution, capable of sucking carbon from the atmosphere.….. The team estimates that the total cost of this technology could be up to 500 trillion euros, or about 535 [trillion] US dollars. They also point out that extraction technologies have “large risks and uncertain feasibility.”…
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, Reto Ruedy. Young people’s burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth System Dynamics, 2017; 8 (3): 577 DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-577-2017