Positive Disruption: LIMITING GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE TO WELL BELOW 2 Cº; focus on energy, ag and land useLeave a Comment
BY MARSHALL ABRAMCZYK, MARTHA CAMPBELL, AMAN CHITKARA, MIA DIAWARA, AILEEN LERCH, AND JAMES NEWCOMB
From the intro:
Today, many experts doubt that energy systems can decarbonize fast enough to prevent this scenario. But this belief is both dangerous and wrong—dangerous because despair undercuts the will to act; and wrong because this view does not take into account events already taking place that indicate a possible pathway to a rapid energy transition.
This paper describes scenarios for transitions in energy, agriculture, and land use that together are sufficient to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5–2 C°. Unlike conventional modeling approaches, these scenarios entail patterns of disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change, harnessed at global scale, that mirror the episodic and disruptive ways that individual industries and the economy as a whole have changed historically. The great transitions in the economy, such as the Industrial Revolution, have been driven by such self-reinforcing patterns of change. Their signs are all around us….